Pay tells you what a trade is worth today. Growth tells you where the market is headed. These are BLS projections for 2024–2034 — forecasts, not guarantees, but they're the most rigorous public projections available and they're worth reading closely.
| Trade | Projected Growth | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Wind Turbine Technician | 49.9% | Among the fastest-growing occupations tracked by BLS across the entire economy |
| Solar PV Installer | 42% | One of the fastest-growing occupations in the country |
| Industrial Maintenance | 13% | Faster than the all-occupation average |
| Electrician | 9% | Faster than average |
| HVAC Technician | 8% | Faster than average |
| Lineman | 7% | Faster than average; high pay offsets modest growth rate |
| Plumber | 4% | Slower but steady — evergreen, non-cyclical demand |
Why Wind and Solar Are Outliers
Two forces compound for renewables. First, they're growing from a small base — a young industry doubling looks dramatic in percentage terms even though the absolute number of new jobs (wind: ~2,300 openings/yr; solar: ~4,100/yr) is modest next to electrical's ~81,000. Second, policy tailwinds are direct — the Inflation Reduction Act specifically incentivizes the buildout these trades staff, often with wage and apprenticeship requirements attached to the tax credits themselves.
High growth percentage and high absolute opening count are different signals. Wind is growing faster than any trade here — but electrical will still post more total new jobs most years, because it's growing fast from a much bigger base.
What the NREL Wind Shortfall Says About Urgency
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's April 2024 assessment (funded by the DOE Wind Energy Technologies Office) projects that by 2030, wind workforce demand could reach 258,000 against a projected supply of only about 134,000 full-time workers — a shortfall of roughly 124,000 workers. That's not a "nice growth chart"; that's a labor market openly begging for entrants years in advance.
How to Read This List If You're Choosing
- Growth rate favors early entrants. Getting into wind or solar now means climbing the seniority ladder alongside an expanding industry rather than a mature, more competitive one.
- Absolute openings favor breadth. If flexibility and job availability across many markets matters more than being early to a boom, electrical, plumbing, and HVAC's larger base offers more immediate options.
- Both signals matter together — cross-reference this table against pay (ranked here) before deciding.